Hunting imaging biomarkers in pulmonary fibrosis: Benchmarks of the AIIB23 challenge (preprint)

Airway-related quantitative imaging biomarkers are crucial for examination, diagnosis, and prognosis in pulmonary diseases. However, the manual delineation of airway trees remains prohibitively time-consuming. While significant efforts have been made towards enhancing airway modelling, current public-available datasets concentrate on lung diseases with moderate morphological variations. The intricate honeycombing patterns present in the lung tissues of fibrotic lung disease patients exacerbate the challenges, often leading to various prediction errors. To address this issue, the 'Airway-Informed Quantitative CT Imaging Biomarker for Fibrotic Lung Disease 2023' (AIIB23) competition was organized in conjunction with the official 2023 International Conference on Medical Image Computing and Computer Assisted Intervention (MICCAI). The airway structures were meticulously annotated by three experienced radiologists. Competitors were encouraged to develop automatic airway segmentation models with high robustness and generalization abilities, followed by exploring the most correlated QIB of mortality prediction. A training set of 120 high-resolution computerised tomography (HRCT) scans were publicly released with expert annotations and mortality status. The online validation set incorporated 52 HRCT scans from patients with fibrotic lung disease and the offline test set included 140 cases from fibrosis and COVID-19 patients. The results have shown that the capacity of extracting airway trees from patients with fibrotic lung disease could be enhanced by introducing voxel-wise weighted general union loss and continuity loss. In addition to the competitive image biomarkers for prognosis, a strong airway-derived biomarker (Hazard ratio>1.5, p<0.0001) was revealed for survival prognostication compared with existing clinical measurements, clinician assessment and AI-based biomarkers.

LUCAS: Development and Validation of a Simple Mortality Risk Calculator that Predicts 60-Day Survival of Adult SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients at Hospital Admission Using Rapid Routine Tests (preprint)

Background: There is an urgent need to develop a simplified risk tool that enables rapid triaging of SARS CoV-2 positive patients during hospital admission, which complements current practice. Many predictive tools developed to date are complex, rely on multiple blood results and past medical history, do not include chest X ray results and rely on Artificial Intelligence rather than simplified algorithms. Our aim was to develop a simplified risk-tool based on five parameters and CXR image data that predicts the 60-day survival of adult SARS CoV-2 positive patients at hospital admission.Methods: We analysed the NCCID database of patient blood variables and CXR images from 19 hospitals across the UK contributed clinical data on SARS CoV-2 positive patients using multivariable logistic regression. The initial dataset was non-randomly split between development and internal validation dataset with 1434 and 310 SARS CoV-2 positive patients, respectively. External validation of final model conducted on 741 Accident and Emergency admissions with suspected SARS CoV-2 infection from a separate NHS Trust which was not part of the initial NCCID data set.Findings: The LUCAS mortality score included five strongest predictors (lymphocyte count, urea, CRP, age, sex), which are available at any point of care with rapid turnaround of results. Our simple multivariable logistic model showed high discrimination for fatal outcome with the AUC-ROC in development cohort 0.765 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.738 - 0.790), in internal validation cohort 0.744 (CI: 0.673 - 0.808), and in external validation cohort 0.752 (CI: 0.713 - 0.787). The discriminatory power of LUCAS mortality score was increased slightly when including the CXR image data (for normal versus abnormal): internal validation AUC-ROC 0.770 (CI: 0.695 - 0.836) and external validation AUC-ROC 0.791 (CI: 0.746 - 0.833). The discriminatory power of LUCAS and LUCAS + CXR performed in the upper quartile of pre-existing risk stratification scores with the added advantage of using only 5 predictors.Interpretation: This simplified prognostic tool derived from objective parameters can be used to obtain valid predictions of mortality in patients within 60 days SARS CoV-2 RT-PCR results. This free-to-use simplified tool can be used to assist the triage of patients into low, moderate, high or very high risk of fatality and is available at https://mdscore.net/.Funding Statement: EPSRC Impact Acceleration account fund EP/R511705/1; AS is funded by a Wellcome Trust fellowship 205188/Z/16/Z; University of Brighton COVID-19 Research Urgency Fund.Declaration of Interests: All researchers declare no competing interests.Ethics Approval Statement: De-identified and pseudo-anonymised patient data were obtained from data sets which were approved by the ethics committee as part of the existing Cardiac MRI Database NHS REC IRAS Ref: 222349 and University of Brighton REC (8011).

LUCAS: A highly accurate yet simple risk calculator that predicts survival of COVID-19 patients using rapid routine tests (preprint)

Background There is an urgent need to develop a simplified risk tool that enables rapid triaging of SARS CoV-2 positive patients during hospital admission, which complements current practice. Many predictive tools developed to date are complex, rely on multiple blood results and past medical history, do not include chest X ray results and rely on Artificial Intelligence rather than simplified algorithms. Our aim was to develop a simplified risk-tool based on five parameters and CXR image data that predicts the 60-day survival of adult SARS CoV-2 positive patients at hospital admission. Methods We analysed the NCCID database of patient blood variables and CXR images from 19 hospitals across the UK contributed clinical data on SARS CoV-2 positive patients using multivariable logistic regression. The initial dataset was non-randomly split between development and internal validation dataset with 1434 and 310 SARS CoV-2 positive patients, respectively. External validation of final model conducted on 741 Accident and Emergency admissions with suspected SARS CoV-2 infection from a separate NHS Trust which was not part of the initial NCCID data set. Findings The LUCAS mortality score included five strongest predictors (lymphocyte count, urea, CRP, age, sex), which are available at any point of care with rapid turnaround of results. Our simple multivariable logistic model showed high discrimination for fatal outcome with the AUC-ROC in development cohort 0.765 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.738 - 0.790), in internal validation cohort 0.744 (CI: 0.673 - 0.808), and in external validation cohort 0.752 (CI: 0.713 - 0.787). The discriminatory power of LUCAS mortality score was increased slightly when including the CXR image data (for normal versus abnormal): internal validation AUC-ROC 0.770 (CI: 0.695 - 0.836) and external validation AUC-ROC 0.791 (CI: 0.746 - 0.833). The discriminatory power of LUCAS and LUCAS + CXR performed in the upper quartile of pre-existing risk stratification scores with the added advantage of using only 5 predictors. Interpretation This simplified prognostic tool derived from objective parameters can be used to obtain valid predictions of mortality in patients within 60 days SARS CoV-2 RT-PCR results. This free-to-use simplified tool can be used to assist the triage of patients into low, moderate, high or very high risk of fatality and is available at https://mdscore.net/ . Summary box What is already known on this topic? Clinical prediction models such as NEWS2 is currently used in practice as mortality risk assessment. In a rapid response to support COVID-19 patient assessment and resource management, published risk tools and models have been found to have a high risk of bias and therefore cannot be translated into clinical practice. What this study adds? A newly developed and validated risk tool (LUCAS) based on rapid and routine blood tests predicts the mortality of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus. This prediction model has both high and robust predictive power and has been tested on an external set of patients and therefore can be used to effectively triage patients when resources are limited. In addition, LUCAS can be used with chest imaging information and NEWS2 score.

DenResCov-19: A deep transfer learning network for robust automatic classification of COVID-19, pneumonia, and tuberculosis from X-rays (preprint)

The global pandemic of COVID-19 is continuing to have a significant effect on the well-being of global population, increasing the demand for rapid testing, diagnosis, and treatment. Along with COVID-19, other etiologies of pneumonia and tuberculosis constitute additional challenges to the medical system. In this regard, the objective of this work is to develop a new deep transfer learning pipeline to diagnose patients with COVID-19, pneumonia, and tuberculosis, based on chest x-ray images. We observed in some instances DenseNet and Resnet have orthogonal performances. In our proposed model, we have created an extra layer with convolutional neural network blocks to combine these two models to establish superior performance over either model. The same strategy can be useful in other applications where two competing networks with complementary performance are observed. We have tested the performance of our proposed network on two-class (pneumonia vs healthy), three-class (including COVID-19), and four-class (including tuberculosis) classification problems. The proposed network has been able to successfully classify these lung diseases in all four datasets and has provided significant improvement over the benchmark networks of DenseNet, ResNet, and Inception-V3. These novel findings can deliver a state-of-the-art pre-screening fast-track decision network to detect COVID-19 and other lung pathologies.

Use of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection from Full Blood Counts in a population (preprint)

Since December 2019 the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has been identified as the cause of the pandemic COVID-19. Early symptoms overlap with other common conditions such as common cold and Influenza, making early screening and diagnosis are crucial goals for health practitioners. The aim of the study was to use machine learning (ML), an artificial neural network (ANN) and a simple statistical test to identify SARS-CoV-2 positive patients from full blood counts without knowledge of symptoms or history of the individuals. The dataset included in the analysis and training contains anonymized full blood counts results from patients seen at the Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, at S\~ao Paulo, Brazil, and who had samples collected to perform the SARS-CoV-2 rt-PCR test during a visit to the hospital. Patient data was anonymised by the hospital, clinical data was standardized to have a mean of zero and a unit standard deviation. This data was made public with the aim to allow researchers to develop ways to enable the hospital to rapidly predict and potentially identify SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. We find that with full blood counts random forest, shallow learning and a flexible ANN model predict SARS-CoV-2 patients with high accuracy between populations on regular wards (AUC = 94-95%) and those not admitted to hospital or in the community (AUC=80-86%). Here, AUC is the Area Under the receiver operating characteristics Curve and a measure for model performance. Moreover, a simple linear combination of 4 blood counts can be used to have an AUC of 85% for patients within the community. The normalised data of different blood parameters from SARS-CoV-2 positive patients exhibit a decrease in platelets, leukocytes, eosinophils, basophils and lymphocytes, and an increase in monocytes.